The College Enrollment Decline is a National Emergency Requiring Community Solutions

By: Matt Gandal, President & CEO, Education Strategy Group

In December, new data illustrated in concrete terms a largely silent emergency brought on by the pandemic: dramatic and alarming drops in the number of students enrolling in higher education. The number of students going to college directly after high school fell by a stunning 22 percent this fall, and the statistics are even worse for students of color and from low-income families. Without sweeping, immediate action from philanthropy, practitioners, and all levels of government, we risk losing an entire generation of students, who may one day be known as a “lost COVID cohort.”
 
This challenge comes at a time when postsecondary degrees and credentials matter more than ever before; nearly every job created over the last decade required higher education or training. The post-pandemic economy will undoubtedly cement that trend. A high school diploma is simply not a ticket to success anymore. If large swaths of students who were expected to pursue higher education do not enroll, millions will be shut out of economic recovery. The fact that those not enrolling are disproportionately poor and/or students of color indicates a near-certain likelihood that existing economic opportunity gaps will only worsen. The consequences could reverberate for a generation or more.
 
In order to reverse this troubling trend, schools, districts, and student support organizations will need to ramp up effective interventions even while they are in the midst of determining whether and when to re-open schools. Our most vulnerable students can’t wait until things have settled down to receive help. Below are several high-impact opportunities for local education foundations to help their schools make a meaningful difference in preventing a generational crisis.
 
Prioritize the most vulnerable students now: If high schools wait until later in the school year to focus on the students who are at greatest risk of dropping out of the college pipeline, it will be too late to help them. To avoid a repeat of this fall’s enrollment decline, schools and districts need immediate resources to support the students at greatest risk. Two actions have been proven to be difference-makers in helping low-income students and students of color transition to postsecondary education: applying to two or more colleges and completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). Philanthropy can provide emergency resources for districts and their college access partners to dramatically expand outreach and design new technologies to engage students around FAFSA completion (such as the Future Focused TX campaign), sponsor competitions with prizes for schools with highest FAFSA completion and college application rates, and bolster counseling capacity to help students complete both the FAFSA and college applications.

Expand networks of student support: Expanding access to postsecondary advisors can lead to dramatic increases in enrollment and attainment. We are encouraged by organizations, such as College Advising Corps, that have dramatically reshaped their approach to advising through virtual settings in response to the pandemic, and believe even more can be done. We are also emboldened by new philanthropy-driven initiatives, like the Tennessee Tutoring Corps from the Bill and Chrissy Haslam Foundation, that pair recent college graduates with students struggling to recoup learning loss as a result of the pandemic. Either through the development of state or regional advising corps or scaling the reach near-peer tutors, expanding this capacity serves the dual purpose of employing recent college graduates and creating critical social networks for traditionally underserved high school students.

Help students build college momentum: Learning disruptions from the pandemic will undoubtedly lead to many students graduating from high school academically unprepared to succeed in college, significantly limiting their long-term chance for success. This past summer, some states and colleges used federal CARES Act funds to innovate in this area. Texas provided financial incentives to students for completing summer coursework that enabled them to place directly into credit-bearing courses upon college enrollment. Northern Virginia Community College offered free summer dual enrollment courses to students in fields with growing job opportunities. Philanthropy can fund the implementation of successful innovations like those mentioned above at scale, providing resources that supplement CARES Act funds so that more localities can replicate and institute creative interventions. A philanthropy-sponsored competition could spur additional innovation among districts and schools who may have ideas about reaching and supporting students but lack the resources to do so.

Focus on the measures that matter for postsecondary access and success: There are nearly 7,000 high schools in America in which Black, Hispanic, or low-income students have less than a 50 percent chance of enrolling in higher education after graduation. That is tragic, and it was the case before COVID. To change the trajectory of these “coin flip” high schools, there must be a greater focus on the most predictive measures of postsecondary enrollment, persistence, and success. The collection and public reporting of disaggregated data on a set of “Momentum Metrics” that predict students’ ability to successfully transition into and through college should be the new normal for every community. Philanthropy has a critical role to play in designing its funding and measurement strategies around the measures that matter most for students’ long-term success.
 
It will take coordinated effort across educators, government, and philanthropy to protect against a lost COVID cohort, but this crisis is simply too great to ignore. Getting students to and through college amidst the pandemic must be a national priority, or we’ll see a generation’s economic opportunity crumble before our eyes.

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